Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Cooler season favoured across Victoria

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows increased chances of below average daytime temperatures over much of western and central Victoria. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% over most of western and central Victoria, and between 40 and 45% in remaining parts of the State (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average across Victoria, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across patches in western and southern Victoria, but only weakly consistent across most of the State (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are also favoured over much of Victoria because the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 35 and 40% over all but the far east of the State.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over some parts of northern Victoria, but only weakly consistent across most of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information