WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Neutral outlook for WA seasonal temperatures

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, is neutral for WA as a result of recent temperature patterns in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

For the February to April period in WA, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are a little over 60% in the far northeast of the State, but over most areas they're between 45 and 60% (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across most of WA, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over parts of central and northern WA, but over most of the State the influence is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over northeast WA. The probability of above average seasonal minimum temperatures is between 60 and 70% in this part of the State, while it is mainly between 50 and 60% elsewhere.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderate to highly consistent in northeast WA, and generally moderately consistent over the rest of the State, particularly the populated areas.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information