NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2004, issued 17th February 2004

Neutral outlook for NSW Autumn temperatures

The Bureau's autumn temperature outlook for NSW shows no strong shifts in the odds towards either above or below average daytime temperatures.

For the March to May period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures in NSW range from near 40% along the southern border, to around 55% in the northeast of the State (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across NSW, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March to May period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over parts of the central NSW coast, but across most of the State this relationship is weak (see background information).

The chances of warmer than average nights vary strongly over NSW, ranging from 60 to 65% in the northeast to below 35% in the far southwest.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March to May period to be moderately consistent in the northeast of NSW, but generally weakly consistent elsewhere in the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MARCH 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information