NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2004, issued 17th February 2004

Warmer season more likely in northern NT

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the late wet season and first month of the dry season, favours above average daytime temperatures over the Top End of the NT and areas immediately southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the March to May period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and most of the Roper-McArthur districts. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the Territory, with about 4 out of 10 being cooler. Elsewhere in the NT the chances range between 45 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March to May period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over all of the NT with the exception of the southwest quarter where this relationship is weak or very weak (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over most of the Northern Territory with probabilities between 60 and 70%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March to May period to be moderately consistent over the northern half of the NT and weakly consistent in the south.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MARCH 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information