Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2004, issued 17th February 2004

Warmer Autumn favoured in Queensland

The Bureau's autumn temperature outlook favours above average maximum and minimum temperatures over much of Queensland. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the March to May period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% across the northeastern half of Queensland (excluding the eastern coastal strip south of Cairns). The strongest probabilities, ranging between 65 and 70%, are evident in the southwestern region of Cape York Peninsula (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about 4 out of 10 being cooler.

In other parts of Queensland the chances of a warmer than average March to May period are between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March to May period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland with the exception of the southwest quarter of the State where this relationship is weak (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over nearly all of Queensland with probabilities in the 60 to 70% range, approaching 75% over parts of Cape York.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March to May period to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MARCH 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information