Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2004, issued 17th February 2004

Cooler Autumn more likely in Victoria

The Bureau's autumn temperature outlook for Victoria shows the odds have swung in favour of a cooler than average season. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the March to May period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% across Victoria (see map). This means that a cooler than average season has a 60 to 65% chance of occurring. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average across the State, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March to May period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of Victoria (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are also favoured over Victoria. The chances of warmer than average seasonal minimum temperatures are generally only between 25 and 35% (see second map), meaning that BELOW average seasonal temperatures have a 65 to 75% chance of occurring.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March to May period to be moderately consistent over western and southern Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MARCH 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information