NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Neutral outlook for NSW seasonal daytime temperatures

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows no strong swings in the odds towards either warmer or cooler daytime temperatures across NSW. In contrast, there is a strong variation in the odds for warmer than average overnight temperatures. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of exceeding the median seasonal daytime temperature are mostly between 40 and 55% across NSW (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across NSW with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over most of eastern NSW, but generally weak west of the Divide (see background information).

The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures vary strongly across the State from around 75% in the northeast to as low as 25% in the far southwest. So with the current climate patterns, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to have WARMER than average nights in the NORTHEAST, while 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to have COOLER than average nights in the SOUTHWEST.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderately consistent over large parts of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information