NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Warmer conditions favoured in the Territory's north

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the transition from the wet to dry season shows increased chances for above average maximum and minimum temperatures in the northern NT. This outlook pattern is largely the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the April to June period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 75% over the northern two thirds of the NT with highest probabilities exceeding 75% in the eastern Top End (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the NT, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate to strong across the NT (see background information).

Increased chances of warmer than average nights are also favoured in the north and far east of the Territory with probabilities ranging from 60% in the southeast to over 70% in the eastern Top End.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderately consistent in the north of the NT but only weakly consistent in the south and west.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information