Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Warm June quarter across much of Queensland

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows increased chances for a warmer than average season across much of Queensland, particularly overnight temperatures. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures range from 45% in the southeast of the State to 75% in the western Cape York (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in north Queensland, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over most of Queensland, particularly in the north, with a weaker influence in the southern part of the State (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured across the whole of Queensland with probabilities generally lying between 60 and 80%. The highest probabilities, exceeding 80%, are located in two moderate-sized areas in the eastern half of the State and a smaller area on the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderate to strong across Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information