SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Cooler nights favoured in southern SA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows increased chances for exceeding median daytime temperatures in the far west and far southeast of South Australia. However, cooler night-time temperatures are favoured in the southern parts of the State for this period. This outlook pattern is largely the result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the April to June period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are predominantly neutral with probabilities ranging between 50 and 60% across SA. In a few isolated patches extending from the far west to the upper southeast, the probabilities just exceed 60% (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, over most of the State history has shown that 5 to 6 seasons out of every 10 are have been warmer than average.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the west of the State but weak in the east (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are favoured in the southern half of SA because the chances of above average temperatures are only between 20 and 40%. This means that BELOW average minimum temperatures have a 7 out of 10 chance of occurring across most of the agricultural areas, while in the north the odds of above or below average minimum temperatures are near 50:50.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderately consistent in the south of SA but weak in the north of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information