Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Cooler nights more likely in Tasmania for June quarter

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows neutral odds for exceeding the median daytime temperature across Tasmania, but increased chances of cooler than average nights. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of exceeding the median daytime temperature are around 55% across Tasmania thereby showing no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler than average maximum temperatures. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across the state, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the northern parts of Tasmania, but weaker in the south (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are favoured across Tasmania however, with the chances of exceeding the mean dropping to between 30 and 40%. This means that BELOW average temperatures have about 6 or 7 chances out of 10 of occurring across Tasmania, with the current climate patterns.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be only weakly consistent across Tasmania, therefore users should exercise caution when interpreting this minimum temperature outlook.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information