Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Cooler nights favoured across Victoria

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows mostly neutral odds for exceeding the median daytime temperatures across Victoria, but increased chances of cooler than average nights. This outlook pattern is largely the result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the April to June period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 55 and 60% across Victoria with a small area in the southern Wimmera that just exceeds 60% (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in the west of the State, with about 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate in northwest Victoria, but weak in remaining parts of the State (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are favoured across all of Victoria with probabilities of warmer than average nights for the season ranging from below 25% in the west to 35% in the east. This mean that cooler than average conditions have a 65 to 75% chance of occurring.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderately consistent over most of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information