WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Warmer June quarter across much of WA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the June quarter shows increased chances for warmer than average daytime temperatures across most of WA, as well as warmer nights in the south and west. This outlook pattern is largely the result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the April to June period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 80% across WA (see map). The strongest probabilities of over 80% occur in the west of the State. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 to 8 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across WA, with about 2 to 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the April to June period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across WA (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over south and west WA, with probabilities ranging from 60 to just over 70% in the southern Gascoyne. Probabilities also exceed 60% in the Kimberley, but elsewhere the odds for exceeding the median minimum temperature are near to 50:50.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the April to June period to be moderately consistent over most of the State except in the east where this relationship is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for December 2003 to February 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information