NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Cooler season more likely in NSW

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a cooler than average season over NSW. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly between 35 and 45% over NSW (see map). This means that BELOW average daytime temperatures have about a 60% chance of occurring, especially in the far southwest of the State. So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average in NSW, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over NSW with the exception of the far northwest and central and northern coasts (see background information).

The outlook for minimum temperatures is neutral across NSW, with the chances of warmer than normal nights averaged over the season mostly lying between 45 and 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be moderately consistent over the northeast half of NSW.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information