NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Warm start to dry season likely in northern NT

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a warmer than average start to the dry season in the north of the NT. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over the northern one-third of the Northern Territory (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average in this part of the Territory, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the rest of the NT, the chances of a warmer than average May to July period are between 45 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the northern half to two-thirds of the NT, but only weakly or very weakly consistent further south (see background information).

Warmer than normal nights (seasonally averaged) are favoured over the NT, with the probabilities of this occurring ranging from to 60 to 75%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be moderately consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information