Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Warmer in far north Queensland

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a warmer than average season over Cape York Peninsula and much of the Gulf Country. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over far northern Queensland (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across Cape York and the Gulf coast, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the remainder of the State, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are mainly between 45 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the northern half of Queensland, but only weakly or very weakly consistent across the southern half (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of the northern half of the State with probabilities ranging from to 60 to 70%. In the southern half of Queensland, the chances of warmer than normal nights averaged over the season are mainly between 55 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be moderately to highly consistent over Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information