SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Cooler season more likely in much of SA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a cooler than average season across much of South Australia. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 45% over most of SA, with the exception of the far west and north where the chances are near 50% (see map). This means that BELOW average daytime temperatures have about a 60% chance of occurring in much of the State, particularly the southeast. So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average in many areas, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the southern half of SA, but only weakly or very weakly consistent in the north (see background information).

Warmer than normal nights (averaged over the season) are favoured in the far north of the State, with the probabilities of this occurring being close to 60%. Over the rest of SA there is no strong swing in the odds towards either warmer or cooler than average nighttime conditions.

Furthermore history shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be only weakly consistent over SA.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information