Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Cooler season more likely in Tasmania

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a cooler than average season in Tasmania. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are close to 40% over Tasmania (see map). This means that BELOW average daytime temperatures have about a 60% chance of occurring across the State. So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average across Tasmania, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent over Tasmania (see background information).

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is neutral for Tasmania, with the chances of warmer than normal nights averaged over the season being between 45 and 50%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be moderately consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information