Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Cooler season more likely in Victoria

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a cooler than average season in Victoria. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% over Victoria (see map). This means that BELOW average daytime temperatures have a 60 to 65% chance of occurring across the State. So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average across Victoria, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent over Victoria (see background information).

Cooler than normal nights (seasonally averaged) are also marginally favoured over Victoria, with the chances of this occurring being between 55 and 60%.

However, history shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be weakly consistent over Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information