WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2004, issued 19th April 2004

Warmer season in the far north of WA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the coming three months shows increased chances for a warmer than average season in the far north of WA. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the May to July period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures range from 55 to a little over 60% across the Kimberley (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about six May to July periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average in this part of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the remainder, and majority of WA, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are between 45 and 55%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of Western Australia, with the exception of the far eastern interior near the NT and SA borders (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of the northeast third of WA with the probabilities of this occurring ranging from to 60 to about 70%. Across the rest of WA, the chances are between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the May to July period to be moderately consistent over large patches in WA.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 25th MAY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for January to March 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information