NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2004, issued 18th May 2004

Warmer winter nights more likely in northern NSW

The Bureau's winter temperature outlook for NSW shows neutral odds for daytime temperatures, but moderate to large swings in the odds towards above average minimum temperatures in the northern half of the State. This outlook pattern is the result of recent temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the June to August period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are around 55% over NSW (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about five winters out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During winter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of NSW (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over the northern half of the State, with probabilities ranging from 60 to 75%. In the remainder of NSW, the chances of above average winter minimum temperatures are between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in winter to be moderately consistent over NSW.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information