NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2004, issued 18th May 2004

Warmer season more likely in the NT

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the early to middle dry season in the NT, shows moderate to large swings in the odds towards above average maximum and minimum temperatures. This outlook pattern is the result of recent temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the June to August period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are generally between 60 and 70% over the NT, marginally exceeding 70% across parts of the Top End (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about seven seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the Northern Territory, with about three out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During winter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the NT (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over the NT, with probabilities in the 60 to 70% range.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in winter to be moderately consistent over large parts of the Territory.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information