SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2004, issued 18th May 2004

Warmer winter more likely in north and west SA

The Bureau's winter temperature outlook shows a moderate swing in the odds towards above average maximum and minimum temperatures in the north and west of South Australia. This outlook pattern is the result of recent temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the June to August period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over the north and west of SA (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about six winters out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the remainder of SA, the chances of a warmer than average season generally between 55 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During winter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of the State, except in the southeast where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over northern parts of SA, with probabilities ranging from 60 to 70%. However, across the remainder of the State, the chances of above average winter minimum temperatures are in the neutral 50 to 60% range.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in winter to be moderately consistent in central and northeast SA, but only weakly or very weakly consistent over the rest of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for February to April 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information