National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Above average temperatures more likely in north & west for September quarter

The coming three months are more likely to be warmer than average in the tropics and west of WA, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for most of the country, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over western WA, the north of the NT and northern Queensland (see map). The probabilities approach 70% around parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

In NSW, SA, Victoria, Tasmania, and the remaining parts of WA, the NT and Queensland, the chances of a warmer than average season are generally between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in WA, the NT, Queensland, northern and eastern NSW, and far northern Tasmania. Elsewhere it is only weakly consistent (see background information).

Warmer than average nights for the season are favoured in south and west WA with 60 to 80% probabilities, and through much of Queensland and northern NSW with 60 to 65% chances. Across remaining parts of the country, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 45 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over July to September to be moderately consistent over Queensland, the east of the NT, the southern half of WA, and parts of north and east NSW. Elsewhere the influence is only weakly or very weakly consistent.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information