NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Neutral temperature odds across NSW for September quarter

The chances of exceeding average daytime temperatures in the coming three months are near 50:50 across NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in the northeastern parts of the State.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 50 and 55% across NSW (see map), thereby showing no strong swing towards a warmer or cooler three month period. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across NSW, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the northeast of NSW, but weak in the remainder (see background information).

Warmer than average nights for the season are favoured in the north and northeastern parts of NSW where probabilities are between 60 and 65%. However in the remaining parts of the State, the chances of exceeding seasonal minimum temperatures are closer to neutral.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over the July to September period to be weak to moderate across NSW.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information