NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Warmer conditions favoured in the northern NT

The coming three months are likely to be warmer than average in NT's northern regions, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, in the south, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been largely influenced by recent temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% in the northern third of the NT (see map) with probabilities approaching 70% in the Arnhem district. Further south, however, the odds are near 50:50. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in the north of the NT, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across much of the NT, except in the far north east where it is weak (see background information).

The minimum temperature outlook for the July to September period is showing mostly neutral odds across the NT, with probabilities ranging between 45 and 60%. Therefore there is no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler overnight conditions.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over July to September to be moderately consistent in the east of the NT, but only weakly consistent in the west.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information