Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Warmer conditions favoured in northern Qld

Maximum temperatures over the coming three months are more likely to be warmer than average in Queensland's north, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However in central and southern districts, the shift in the odds is too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been influenced by recent temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the northern third of the State (see map). The probabilities approach 70% around parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York Peninsula. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across northern Queensland, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

In southern parts of the State, the chances of a warmer than average season are between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across Queensland (see background information).

Warmer than average nights for the July to September period are favoured across large parts of eastern and central Queensland with probabilities exceeding 60%. A small area in the southeast is showing the chances of exceeding average minimum temperatures approaching 70%. In the west and the far north, probabilities are generally between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over July to September to be moderately consistent over Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information