SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

September quarter temperature odds near 50:50 across SA

The Bureau's outlook for the coming three months shows mostly neutral temperature odds across SA. This shift in the odds is therefore considered too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 50 and 55% over much of SA and approach 60% in the far southeast corner (see map). Therefore there is no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler conditions over the three month period. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across SA, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in northern SA, but weak in central and southern parts of the state (see background information).

Near neutral odds are also favoured in the minimum temperature outlook with 50 to 60% probabilities evident throughout SA.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over the July to September period to be only weakly consistent across SA.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information