Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Neutral temperature odds across Tasmania for September quarter

The Bureau's outlook for the coming three months shows the probability of exceeding average maximum and minimum temperatures is close to 50:50. This shift in the odds is too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum and minimum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 50 and 55% across Tasmania (see map) thereby showing no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler conditions. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the far north of Tasmania, but weak in the south (see background information).

The chances of exceeding average overnight temperatures during the three month period are also between 50 and 55% across Tasmania, again showing little tendency towards either warmer or cooler conditions.

However, history shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over July to September to be only weakly consistent across Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information