Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Temperature odds near 50:50 across Victoria for September quarter

Over the next three months across Victoria, the chances of both maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding median values are near neutral, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This shift in the odds is too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum and minimum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are near 55% across much of Victoria, with probabilities approaching 60% in central and western regions (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across Victoria, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weakly consistent across much of Victoria (see background information).

Minimum temperatures across Victoria for the September quarter also show near neutral probabilities with the chances of exceeding average overnight temperatures ranging between 50 and 60%.

However, history shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over July to September to be very weak across Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information