WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004

Warm conditions favoured in western WA

The Bureau's outlook for the coming three months shows that conditions are likely to be warmer than average in the west and far north of WA. However, for central and some northern parts, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum and minimum temperatures during the September quarter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been equally influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% in the west and far north of WA, however much of central and eastern regions show near neutral temperature odds (see map). The probabilities approach 70% in a small area inland from Geraldton. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six September quarters out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in the west and far north of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During July to September, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in WA, except in the far southeast where this relationship is weak (see background information).

Warmer than average nights for the season are also favoured in south and west WA with 60 to 80% probabilities. In northern regions and the far east however, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are close to neutral with probabilities ranging mostly between 45 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures over the July to September period to be moderately consistent in southern WA, but only weakly consistent in the north.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information