National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Increased warmth for parts of WA and SE Australia

The coming three months are more likely to be warmer than average across the west of WA and in a small part of southeast Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for most of the country, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the period from late winter to mid-spring.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over western WA and a small area covering part of southeast SA and western Victoria (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about four out of ten being cooler.

In NSW, Queensland, Tasmania, the NT and remaining parts of WA, SA and Victoria, the chances of a warmer than average season are generally between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of the country, with the exception of the southeast and far north where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the season across much of WA, the NT and Queensland. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are mainly between 60 and 70% in these areas, reaching over 70% in the west of WA. Across remaining parts of the country, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be moderately consistent over the southern half of WA, much of Queensland, NSW and SA. Elsewhere the influence is generally only weakly consistent.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4296
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information