NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Warmer nights more likely in the NT

The coming three months are more likely to have warmer than average overnight temperatures across the Northern Territory, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, as far as daytime temperatures are concerned, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for the last two months of the dry season and the first month of the wet.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are are mostly between 50 and 55% over the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the Territory, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the southern half of the NT, but only weakly consistent in the north (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the season across much of the NT. The chances of this occurring are mainly around 60%, meaning that about six seasons out of ten would be expected to be warmer than average overnight, given the current ocean temperatures.

However, history shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be moderately consistent in only the far east of the NT and Arnhem Land, so the above outlook should be used with caution. Across much of the NT, the influence is only weakly consistent.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th AUGUST 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information