SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Increased warmth for parts of southern SA

The coming three months are more likely to be warmer than average across parts of southern South Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for rest of the State, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the period from late winter to mid-spring.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are a little over 60% in a small part of southern SA (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in this part of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the northern half of South Australia. Across the rest of the State the influence is only weakly consistent (see background information) so this outlook should be used with caution.

The chances of above average minimum temperatures range between about 55 and a little over 60% across SA. This means that warmer than average nights are marginally more likely, especially in the far northeast and far northwest of the State.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be moderately consistent over much of SA.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th AUGUST 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information