Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Neutral outlook for Tasmanian seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds towards either above or below average three-month mean maximum temperatures for Tasmania, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For Tasmania, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly around 55%, meaning that they're too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for late winter to mid-spring (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be mainly weakly consistent across Tasmania (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the season across much of the north and west of the country. However, in Tasmania the chances of above average minimum temperatures are generally close to 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be moderately consistent in the east and southwest of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th AUGUST 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information