Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Increased warmth for parts of western Victoria

The coming three months are more likely to be warmer than average across parts of the Western District and southern Wimmera in Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for the rest of the State, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the period from late winter to mid-spring.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are a little over 60% in a small region of western Victoria (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in this part of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weakly consistent across Victoria (see background information), so this outlook should be used with caution.

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the season across much of the north and west of the country. However, in Victoria the chances of above average minimum temperatures are generally close to 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be mostly weakly consistent over Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th AUGUST 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information