WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2004, issued 13th July 2004

Above average temperatures more likely in WA

Daytime temperatures in the west of WA and overnight temperatures over most parts of the State, have an increased chance of being above average during the coming three months, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over western WA (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about four out of ten being cooler.

However, for the rest of the State, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the period from late winter to mid-spring.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of WA, apart from the Kimberley (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the season across much of WA. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are mainly between 60 and 70%, rising to near 75% across a large area in the west of the State.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August to October to be moderately consistent over the southern half of WA, but only weakly consistent in the north.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th AUGUST 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information