NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004

Warmer nights for a large part of the NT

Three-month minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average across western and central parts of the Northern Territory, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for maximum temperatures the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for the September to November period.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been influenced by recent above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The chances of above normal daytime temperatures averaged over September to November are between 50 and 60% over the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five or six Sep-Nov periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the Territory, with about four or five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. History shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the Northern Territory during the late dry to early wet season (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for the coming three months across western and central parts of the NT. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are between 60 and 65% in this area, but across remaining parts of the Territory, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 55 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during September to November to be moderately consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th SEPTEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information