Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004

Warmer than average Spring for south Queensland

Spring maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average across a large part of southern Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average spring daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over much of southern Queensland. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six spring periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across this part of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the rest of Queensland, the chances of a warmer than average spring are generally between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of Queensland, with the exception of the southeast of the State where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).

The outlook for Queensland overnight temperatures is neutral. The chances of above normal minimum temperatures averaged over spring are mainly between 50 and 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during September to November to be moderately consistent over the north and far west of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th SEPTEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information