Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004

Neutral outlook for Victorian Spring temperatures

Although spring maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average in southern Queensland, the outlook is neutral over Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above normal daytime temperatures averaged over spring are between 50 and 55% over Victoria (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five spring periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weakly consistent across Victoria (see background information).

The outlook for Victorian overnight temperatures is neutral. The chances of above normal minimum temperatures averaged over spring are generally close to 50% right across the State.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during September to November to be moderately consistent in a few small patches in Victoria, but only weakly or very weakly consistent over most of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th SEPTEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information