WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004

Warmer than average Spring nights for Western Australia

Spring minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average across most of Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for maximum temperatures the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for the September to November period.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been influenced by recent above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The chances of above average spring daytime temperatures are between 50 and a little over 55% over WA (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five spring periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across eastern WA, but only weakly consistent in the west of the State (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for spring across most of WA. In terms of probabilities, the chances of above average minimum temperatures are mainly between 60 and 65%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during September to November to be moderate to highly consistent over WA, particularly the southern half of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th SEPTEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information