National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Increased warmth favoured for much of eastern and southern Australia

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across much of eastern and southern Australia for the December quarter (Oct-Dec), the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% from central Queensland southward over NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and much of SA (see map). The chances are also raised in western WA. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these areas of Australia, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Across the NT and remaining parts of Queensland, SA and WA, the chances of a warmer than average December quarter are generally between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of the country, with the exception of the southwest NT and far east WA border area where it is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across the southern half of WA for the final three months of 2004. The chances of above average minimum temperatures range from 60% to nearly 80% in these areas. Across remaining parts of the country, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland, NSW, SA and southern WA, weakly consistent in much of Victoria and Tasmania, and only very weakly consistent across much of the NT and far northern WA.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256, Blair Trewin on (03) 9669 4085
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information