NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Warmer daytime temperatures likely across NSW

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across NSW for the December quarter, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% across the State and ACT, apart from a very narrow strip on the northern NSW coast (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average over NSW, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the State, except around Sydney where this relationship is weak (see background information)/

The chances of overnight temperatures being above the median are between 50 and 60% across the State, thereby showing no strong trend towards either warmer or cooler conditions.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to be moderately consistent across NSW with the relationship slightly stronger in the northwest corner of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information