NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Near neutral temperature odds across the NT

For the start of the northern wet season, the odds are near 50:50 for exceeding both average daytime and average overnight temperatures across the NT, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 45 and 60% across the NT, with no strong trend towards either warmer or cooler conditions (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the NT, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of the NT, except in the far southwest corner where this relationship is weak (see background information).

The chances of overnight temperatures being above average are between 50 and 60% across the NT for the final three months of 2004, thereby not showing a strong trend towards either warmer or cooler than average conditions.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to be only weakly consistent over most of the NT, although there is a moderate relationship in the far north and far south of the Territory.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information