Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Warmer conditions favoured in southern Queensland

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across much of southern and central Queensland for the December quarter, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been most heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% across central and southern Queensland (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Further north, the chances of a warmer than average December quarter are between 50 and 60%, thereby showing no strong swing towards warmer or cooler conditions.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of Queensland except in the far northeast (see background information).

The chances of overnight temperatures exceeding the median are between 50 and 60% across Queensland, thereby showing no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler conditions.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during October to December to have moderate to strong consistency over most of Queensland, except in the far southeast where the relationship is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information