Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2004, issued 16th September 2004

Warmer daytime conditions likely in Tasmania

The odds have swung in favour of above average maximum temperatures across Tasmania for the December quarter, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been influenced by recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% across Tasmania, with the highest probabilities being in the southeast of the State and far northwest including the Bass Strait Islands. (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven October to December periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in Tasmania, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weak to moderately consistent across Tasmania (see background information).

The chances of overnight temperatures being above median are near 50% across Tasmania, thereby showing no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler than average conditions.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the October to December period to be moderately consistent across Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information