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The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to
recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and
70% over Queensland, NSW, Victoria, eastern SA, and the east and north
of the NT (see map). The highest probabilities of
70 to 75% occur in central and southeast Queensland. So in
years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven November
to January periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average
across the eastern half of the continent, with about three or four out of ten
being cooler.
Across Tasmania, WA, western SA and the west of the NT, the chances of
a warmer than average November to January period
are generally between 50 and 60%.
Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the
influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal
temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence
on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts
of the country (see background information).
Overnight temperatures also have an increased chance of being above normal
across much of the eastern half of the country for the late spring to
mid-summer period. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are
between 60 and 70% across NSW, most of Queensland (apart from Cape York),
Victoria, SA, the south and east of the NT, and in parts of Tasmania. Once
again the highest chances of 70 to 75% occur in southern Queensland.
Across remaining parts of the country, the chances
of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 55
and 60%.
History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during
November to January to be moderately consistent over most of the country.
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