NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2004 to January 2005, issued 19th October 2004

Above average temperatures favoured in east and north NT

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures across much of the eastern NT for the November to January quarter, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the November to January period in the Northern Territory, the chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 50 and 60% in western and southern areas, increasing to 60 to 65% in the east. Probabilities reach 70% in the far northeast of the Territory (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six November to January periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in the eastern NT, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the eastern half of the NT, but only weakly consistent in the west (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across much of the southern half of the Territory and the far east for the coming three months. In this part of the NT, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 65%, increasing to 70% in the far southeast corner, while across the remainder the chances are between 55 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during November to January to be moderately consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th NOVEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information