SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2004 to January 2005, issued 19th October 2004

Above average temperatures favoured in eastern SA

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures in the eastern third of South Australia for the late spring to mid-summer quarter (Nov-Jan), the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

For the November to January period in SA, the chances of above average maximum temperatures are mostly between 50 and 60%, increasing to 60 to 65% in the State's east (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six November to January periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in eastern SA, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of South Australia (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across all but the far west of the State for the late spring to mid-summer period. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are between 60 and 65% across most of SA, increasing to 70% in the east of the State, meaning that about six years out of ten would be expected to have seasonal mean minimum temperatures above the long-term average.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during November to January to be moderately consistent over South Australia.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th NOVEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information