Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2004 to January 2005, issued 19th October 2004

Neutral outlook for Tasmanian seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds towards either above or below average maximum temperatures in Tasmania for the late spring to mid-summer quarter (Nov-Jan), the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 55 and 60% over Tasmania for the November to January period (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five or six November to January periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about four or five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be only weakly consistent across most of Tasmania (see background information).

The chances of above average minimum temperatures in Tasmania for the coming three months are generally close to 60%. This means that about six years out of ten would be expected to have seasonal mean minimum temperatures above the long-term average.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during November to January to be moderately consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th NOVEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information